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Who do you think will win? Two choices, one for each potential race.
McCain vs Clinton = McCain Victory 6 (37.5%)
McCain vs Clinton = Clinton Victory 2 (12.5%)
McCain vs Obama = McCain Victory 5 (31.3%)
McCain vs Obama = Obama Victory 3 (18.8%)
Total Votes: 16
Who would win if G-Elections where held today?
Topic Started: Apr 16 2008, 11:37 AM (253 Views)
Dandandat
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Time to put something here
Here is what the polls say. Did you agree with them?

Clinton vs McCain

Electoral Votes: Clinton 240 McCain 298

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clin...Maps/Apr16.html

The Barely Dem vs Barely GOP is also a telling number. Clintion will have to fight alot harder.

Barely Dem (99) - Clinton
Barely GOP (16) - McCain


Obama vs McCain

Electoral Votes: Obama 237 McCain 277 Ties 24

<a href='http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr16.html' target='_blank'>http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr16.html</a>

The Barely Dem vs Barely GOP is a lot closer here


It seems Obama is the better candidate at this point in time, but that McCain would win at this point and time.

Now when polled I would assume the question would be something like "Between Clinton and McCain who would you want to be your next president" so an attempt is made to cancel out the fact that the Democrats have not yet picked a candidate. But off cores that can't be canceled out completely and there are bound to be Clinton or Obama supporters who have answered McCain in these polls out of spite, but would vote for the prevailing Democratic candidate despite their current disapproval of them. But will that number be enough to tip the scales of these polls.

Also worth mentioning is that current negative sentiment for both Clinton and Obama is a current factor to consider, McCain is out of the negative headlines at the moment as the other two pretty much ignore him as they fight each other. So one would expect McCain's numbers to come down once the General Campaign starts. Will that be enough to tip the scales.
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Dandandat
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Time to put something here
My opinion is that Obama will have the most to loss appeal-wise once the general elections campaign really begins. McCain and Clinton are both known elements and Obama is not. This is not to say Obama "will in fact" loss the most appeal but that he just has the most to loss. Give that fact I don’t think Obama can count on McCain losing appeal to help him in the general election, by the same token Clinton can't count on that either.

However Obama I think also has most to gain when it comes to appeal in the general election. Clinton has a very strong base of detractors in side and out side of her party, I think a lot more Clinton supporters will be happy to vote for Obama, while not as many Obama supports will be happy to vote for Clinton. I also think Obama has a much better chance of stripping McCain supporters then Clinton does. McCain on the other hand will have a hard time striping supporters from either of the other two.

Obama and McCain are both appealing to independent and undecided voters, Clinton on the other hand is much more polarizing and if one is not a Clinton supporter now I doubt they will be later.

So I would have to say that the Clinton/McCain numbers are not going to change much over the general election and in that race McCain will be our next president.

However the Obama/McCain numbers have a much better chance to shift into Obama's favor so long as nothing major affects his appeal during the campaign. The tied and marginal electoral votes also make this a much closer raise which will help for a possible Obama victory since he will have a easier time stripping votes from McCain.

Then there is money, Obama will have a lot more of it which can only help. Clinton will also have more.

Clinton vs McCain = McCain wins big

Obama vs McCain and will have a good race till the end.

It seems surprising that in a year where the Democrats couldn’t have possibly lost that things could have changed so much.

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Admiralbill_gomec
UberAdmiral
I think Obama will get the nod, and then McCain will beat him. While the press can continue writing love poems to Obama, his own actions (and the McCain campaign) will be used against him.

Funny that last year the guy was the longshot. He was viewed as petty and vindictive because he didn't like jokes made about his ears or his paunch. No one could name a bill he had passed. The list goes on.
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HistoryDude
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Shaken, not stirred...
Quote:
 
Also worth mentioning is that current negative sentiment for both Clinton and Obama is a current factor to consider, McCain is out of the negative headlines at the moment as the other two pretty much ignore him as they fight each other. So one would expect McCain's numbers to come down once the General Campaign starts. Will that be enough to tip the scales.


Yes, this will be the critical and fun factor to watch. As soon as the general campaign begins, it'll be interesting to see what, if anything, the Dems toss up on McCain - and how that will affect his numbers.
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Dandandat
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Time to put something here
HistoryDude
Apr 16 2008, 01:59 PM
Quote:
 
Also worth mentioning is that current negative sentiment for both Clinton and Obama is a current factor to consider, McCain is out of the negative headlines at the moment as the other two pretty much ignore him as they fight each other. So one would expect McCain's numbers to come down once the General Campaign starts. Will that be enough to tip the scales.


Yes, this will be the critical and fun factor to watch. As soon as the general campaign begins, it'll be interesting to see what, if anything, the Dems toss up on McCain - and how that will affect his numbers.

What could the Dems use on McCain though, that isn't already know about him? That's where Obama has to worry he potentially has a lot more dirt that hasn't come out yet, and things that have come out already about him will be far more damming from the Republicans then when their coming from Clinton now.
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HistoryDude
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Shaken, not stirred...
^^^ Who knows? Everyone has skeletons in the closet, or so "they" say. :P

They could harp on his infidelity in his first marriage, but after seeing that nothing happened to Clinton, they'd probably not get very far. They could harp on his "insubordinate" attitude while in the Navy, but that'd probably just endear him more to Americans. And with his military record and experience as a POW, it's going to be hard to besmirch his character. That pretty much leaves his political record, which looks better (at least by experience) when put up against Obama and Clinton, so...?
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Admiralbill_gomec
UberAdmiral
Dandandat
Apr 16 2008, 01:04 PM
HistoryDude
Apr 16 2008, 01:59 PM
Quote:
 
Also worth mentioning is that current negative sentiment for both Clinton and Obama is a current factor to consider, McCain is out of the negative headlines at the moment as the other two pretty much ignore him as they fight each other. So one would expect McCain's numbers to come down once the General Campaign starts. Will that be enough to tip the scales.


Yes, this will be the critical and fun factor to watch. As soon as the general campaign begins, it'll be interesting to see what, if anything, the Dems toss up on McCain - and how that will affect his numbers.

What could the Dems use on McCain though, that isn't already know about him? That's where Obama has to worry he potentially has a lot more dirt that hasn't come out yet, and things that have come out already about him will be far more damming from the Republicans then when their coming from Clinton now.

McCain was one of the Keating 5, as I remember.
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8247
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Apparently we look like this now
McCain over Obama.
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fireh8er
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I'm Captain Kirk!
McCain over Obama.
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