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Situation in Iraq deteriorating?
Topic Started: Dec 6 2004, 10:48 PM (283 Views)
24thcenstfan
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Something Wicked This Fae Comes
2 C.I.A. Reports Offer Warnings on Iraq's Path

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By DOUGLAS JEHL

WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 - A classified cable sent by the Central Intelligence Agency's station chief in Baghdad has warned that the situation in Iraq is deteriorating and may not rebound any time soon, according to government officials.

The cable, sent late last month as the officer ended a yearlong tour, presented a bleak assessment on matters of politics, economics and security, the officials said. They said its basic conclusions had been echoed in briefings presented by a senior C.I.A. official who recently visited Iraq.

The officials described the two assessments as having been "mixed," saying that they did describe Iraq as having made important progress, particularly in terms of its political process, and credited Iraqis with being resilient.

But over all, the officials described the station chief's cable in particular as an unvarnished assessment of the difficulties ahead in Iraq. They said it warned that the security situation was likely to get worse, including more violence and sectarian clashes, unless there were marked improvements soon on the part of the Iraqi government, in terms of its ability to assert authority and to build the economy.

Together, the appraisals, which follow several other such warnings from officials in Washington and in the field, were much more pessimistic than the public picture being offered by the Bush administration before the elections scheduled for Iraq next month, the officials said. The cable was sent to C.I.A. headquarters after American forces completed what military commanders have described as a significant victory, with the retaking of Falluja, a principal base of the Iraqi insurgency, in mid-November.

The American ambassador to Iraq, John D. Negroponte, was said by the officials to have filed a written dissent, objecting to one finding as too harsh, on the ground that the United States had made more progress than was described in combating the Iraqi insurgency. But the top American military commander in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., also reviewed the cable and initially offered no objections, the officials said. One official said, however, that General Casey may have voiced objections in recent days.

The station chief's cable has been widely disseminated outside the C.I.A., and was initially described by a government official who read the document and who praised it as unusually candid. Other government officials who have read or been briefed on the document later described its contents. The officials refused to be identified by name or affiliation because of the delicacy of the issue. The station chief cannot be publicly identified because he continues to work undercover.

Asked about the cable, a White House spokesman, Sean McCormack, said he could not discuss intelligence matters. A C.I.A. spokesman would say only that he could not comment on any classified document.

It was not clear how the White House was responding to the station chief's cable. In recent months, some Republicans, including Senator John McCain of Arizona, have accused the agency of seeking to undermine President Bush by disclosing intelligence reports whose conclusions contradict the administration or its policies. But senior intelligence officials including John E. McLaughlin, the departing deputy director of central intelligence, have disputed those assertions. One government official said the new assessments might suggest that Porter J. Goss, the new director of central intelligence, was willing to listen to views different from those publicly expressed by the administration.

A separate, more formal, National Intelligence Estimate prepared in July and sent to the White House in August by American intelligence agencies also presented a dark forecast for Iraq's future through the end of 2005. Among three possible developments described in that document, the best case was tenuous stability and the worst case included a chain of events leading to civil war.

After news reports disclosed the existence of the National Intelligence Estimate, which also remains classified, President Bush initially dismissed the conclusions as nothing more than a guess. Since then, however, violence in Iraq has increased, including the recent formation of a Shiite militia intended to carry out attacks on Sunni militants.

The end-of-tour cable from the station chief, spelling out an assessment of the situation on the ground, is a less-formal product than a National Intelligence Estimate. But it was drafted by an officer who is highly regarded within the C.I.A. and who, as station chief in Baghdad, has been the top American intelligence official in Iraq since December 2003. The station chief overseas an intelligence operation that includes about 300 people, making Baghdad the largest C.I.A. station since Saigon during the Vietnam War era.

The senior C.I.A. official who visited Iraq and then briefed counterparts from other government agencies was Michael Kostiw, a senior adviser to Mr. Goss. One government official who knew about Mr. Kostiw's briefings described them as "an honest portrayal of the situation on the ground."

Since they took office in September, Mr. Goss and his aides have sought to discourage unauthorized disclosures of information. In a memorandum sent to C.I.A. employees last month, Mr. Goss said the job of the intelligence agency was to "provide the intelligence as we see it" but also to "support the administration and its policies in our work."

"As agency employees we do not identify with, support or champion opposition to the administration or its policies," Mr. Goss said in that memorandum, saying that he was seeking "to clarify beyond doubt the rules of the road." The memorandum urged intelligence employees to "let the facts alone speak to the policy maker."

Mr. Goss himself made his first foreign trip as the intelligence director last week, with stops that included several days in Britain and a day in Afghanistan, but he did not visit Iraq, the government officials said.

At the White House on Monday, President Bush himself offered no hint of pessimism as he met with Iraq's president, Sheik Ghazi al-Yawar. Despite the security challenges, Mr. Bush said, the United States continues to favor the voting scheduled for Iraq on Jan. 30 to "send the clear message to the few people in Iraq that are trying to stop the march toward democracy that they cannot stop elections."

"The American people must understand that democracy just doesn't happen overnight," he said. "It is a process. It is an evolution. After all, look at our own history. We had great principles enunciated in our Declarations of Independence and our Constitution, yet, we had slavery for a hundred years. It takes a while for democracy to take hold. And this is a major first step in a society which enables people to express their beliefs and their opinions."


1) Apparently the word "classified" has been redefined by some to mean, "let's hurry up and leak this to the press."

2) I wonder how much of this "revelation" about the current situation in Iraq has to do with the current shake up at the CIA? As a side note, I like what I am hearing so far about what Goss is doing at the CIA. That agency is long overdue for an overhaul IMO.

3) I wish I knew the real truth about what the heck is going on over in Iraq. :ermm: There are just too many conflicting reports in my opinion. One minute we get good news, the next its all gloom and doom.
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Dwayne
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24thcenstfan
Dec 6 2004, 10:48 PM
1) Apparently the word "classified" has been redefined by some to mean, "let's hurry up and leak this to the press."

2) I wonder how much of this "revelation" about the current situation in Iraq has to do with the current shake up at the CIA? As a side note, I like what I am hearing so far about what Goss is doing at the CIA. That agency is long overdue for an overhaul IMO.

3) I wish I knew the real truth about what the heck is going on over in Iraq. :ermm: There are just too many conflicting reports in my opinion. One minute we get good news, the next its all gloom and doom.

A1) This is a result of CIA employees and others in the greater INTEL community who have their own political agenda. It has to stop and that's why Porter Goss was brought in.

A2) This has everything to do with what Goss is doing, because Goss must be seen as failing if the rogue elements in the INTEL community are to win the turf battle. But unfortunately the shake up must extend beyond the CIA to how Congress and the CIA work together, because I'd bet money that regardless of who Doug Jehl said leaked the document, it was leaked by a Congressional staffer who works for a congress person in the INTEL loop who also has a political reason to want to damage the Bush Administration specifically and republicans in general.

A3) The fact of the matter is there is both good and bad occurring in Iraq, but to not recognize the good of what's happening in Iraq doesn't serve those wanting to make it better, because they do not receive recognition for a job well done. And to not recognize the bad blinds Iraqi's to the benchmarks which they will need to measure their efforts to reaching what is good. Those in the west that wish to focus only on the bad news do so for purely political reasons, and conversely, those that only wish to focus on the good news do so for the exact same reason.
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gvok
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Dwayne
Dec 7 2004, 03:41 AM
Those in the west that wish to focus only on the bad news do so for purely political reasons, and conversely, those that only wish to focus on the good news do so for the exact same reason.

I agree with this statement, Dwayne.
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24thcenstfan
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Something Wicked This Fae Comes
Dwayne,

You bring up some interesting points. I have little doubt that the document was leaked for someone’s political agenda.

At the heart of the matter though is whether or not the document is factual. The article leads me to believe that there is some credibility to the document. Only time will tell I suppose.


Quote:
 
Those in the west that wish to focus only on the bad news do so for purely political reasons, and conversely, those that only wish to focus on the good news do so for the exact same reason.

I also agree with this statement of yours. IMO, one of the few remaining slave masters is political ideology. Most of us are influenced by political ideology. Unfortunately, more and more are becoming so entrenched in their politics that they are fast becoming incapable of functioning unless it is through the filter of that political ideology.
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Dwayne
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24thcenstfan
Dec 7 2004, 11:14 AM
Dwayne,

You bring up some interesting points. I have little doubt that the document was leaked for someone’s political agenda.

At the heart of the matter though is whether or not the document is factual. The article leads me to believe that there is some credibility to the document. Only time will tell I suppose.


Quote:
 
Those in the west that wish to focus only on the bad news do so for purely political reasons, and conversely, those that only wish to focus on the good news do so for the exact same reason.

I also agree with this statement of yours. IMO, one of the few remaining slave masters is political ideology. Most of us are influenced by political ideology. Unfortunately, more and more are becoming so entrenched in their politics that they are fast becoming incapable of functioning unless it is through the filter of that political ideology.

Well of course the document is factual, at least in as much a CIA analysts' opinion can be called factual.

The real question ... at least in my mind ... is this document a balanced assesment of the situation in Iraq?

In that respect, I say no.

This assesment could be balanced with other assesments, but only the negative assesments are leaked. Charges of law breaking would greet anyone if they were to attempt to refute this assesment specifically with data about the analyst that would explain the analyst's overall negative assesment or by releasing other secret CIA documents that painted a differring assesment.

The fact is, every negative assesment coming out of Iraq could be balanced with examples of positive achievements in Iraq. You rarely get to read about all the Iraqi lives Americans have touched in positives ways, but let an American do something that seems negative or let a reports surface that casts a negative light on the situation, and you never hear the end of that.


As for my comments ... thank you for the support.

I just think that now more than every, democrats and republicans must stop and seriously contemplate just who they are; are we Americans with a shared vision or are ours visions for America going to devolve into sectarian division?

We must realize that America has always been a few step away from becoming Balkanized; we could easily break into geographic/political battles. What's kept us together is a shared personal vision of America held by each and every one of us; we've always wanted to see our children do better than we did and we held no ill-will towards our neighbors.

In my opinion, this shared personal vision is no longer shared by many Americans, especially the aspect of harboring ill-will towards our neighbors. Maybe no one wants to "love thy neighbor", because that's a philosophy unique to Judeo-Christian ethics and we've chosen to separate religion from daily life. Maybe we've just forgetton it or have become too jaded.
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Fesarius
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Dwayne,

Your posts are thought-provoking and engaging. That last paragraph--very interesting. [Fesarius cogitates the paragraph for a time.]
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somerled
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Fesarius
Dec 8 2004, 08:54 AM
^^^
Dwayne,

Your posts are thought-provoking and engaging.  That last paragraph--very interesting.  [Fesarius cogitates the paragraph for a time.]

Or perhaps they never really did and have come to realise that dark forces within their own halls of power have taken hold and mislead , misinformed and caused then to act in a similar as the regimes that millions of American bled to expunge for ever from the world. There was a time when the USA was held in high regard just about everywhere - those days have passed forever.

Perhaps the propoganda and paranoia made them more fearful than they should be, causing the USA to become what the American people most despise themselves.

Just a thought.
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Wichita
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somerled
Dec 8 2004, 02:15 PM
Fesarius
Dec 8 2004, 08:54 AM
^^^
Dwayne,

Your posts are thought-provoking and engaging.  That last paragraph--very interesting.  [Fesarius cogitates the paragraph for a time.]

Or perhaps they never really did and have come to realise that dark forces within their own halls of power have taken hold and mislead , misinformed and caused then to act in a similar as the regimes that millions of American bled to expunge for ever from the world. There was a time when the USA was held in high regard just about everywhere - those days have passed forever.

Perhaps the propoganda and paranoia made them more fearful than they should be, causing the USA to become what the American people most despise themselves.

Just a thought.

Personal Response

Or perhaps some just prefer to see disaster and refuse to look for success.

Good news from Iraq

End of Personal Response
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Fesarius
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Quote:
 
Or perhaps some just prefer to see disaster and refuse to look for success.

Bingo! And Amen to that. ;)
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gvok
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Fesarius
Dec 8 2004, 10:24 AM
Quote:
 
Or perhaps some just prefer to see disaster and refuse to look for success.

Bingo! And Amen to that. ;)

This may be true for some people who thought the decision to invade Iraq was wrong but it is not true for all (namely myself).
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Fesarius
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BTW, my 'Bingo' post was not directed at Somerled. But it was directed at the naysayers and the 'doom-and-gloomers' that exist today. :)
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Dwayne
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Fesarius
Dec 8 2004, 08:54 AM
^^^
Dwayne,

Your posts are thought-provoking and engaging.  That last paragraph--very interesting.  [Fesarius cogitates the paragraph for a time.]

Well, thank you.

I didn't really consider it "thought-provoking and engaging" when I first wrote it. I thought they were more stream of consciousness than anything else.

somerled
Dec 8 2004, 09:15 AM
Or perhaps they never really did and have come to realise that dark forces within their own halls of power have taken hold and mislead , misinformed and caused then to act in a similar as the regimes that millions of American bled to expunge for ever from the world. There was a time when the USA was held in high regard just about everywhere - those days have passed forever.

Perhaps the propoganda and paranoia made them more fearful than they should be, causing the USA to become what the American people most despise themselves.

Just a thought.

Here's a thought, perhaps you're just an Anti-American numbskull who wouldn't know the nature of fascism and totalitarianism even if it were to storm into your house and lop off your head.

People who seek freedom from around the world still hold America in high regard and choose the United States as their destination over all others.

As well, it is perhaps you that is the victim of propaganda and paranoia, because you wish to believe the people you should despise the most.
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24thcenstfan
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somerled
Dec 8 2004, 09:15 AM
There was a time when the USA was held in high regard just about everywhere - those days have passed forever.

I think this is an exaggeration. The US has definitely suffered a black eye over the last 4 years because of our actions in regards to Iraq. Also, the international community has in my opinion had a difficult time getting used to (or accepting) President Bush’s style of governing. I don’t think the world was prepared for a US President that was in so many ways different from Clinton. This has caused a lot of resentment. The transition wasn’t easy for many Americans either (it certainly wasn’t for me).

However, as already mentioned, the US is still one of the most coveted nations in the world for people wanting to immigrate. In addition, politics and public sentiment is cyclical and always changing (it is never forever). In five, ten, twenty years from now, the international community will have an entirely different view of the US. It may be worse, it may be better...one never knows.

P.S. (I added the bold).
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Dwayne
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24thcenstfan
Dec 8 2004, 08:46 PM
The US has definitely suffered a black eye over the last 4 years because of our actions in regards to Iraq.

Four years?

America only went into Iraq in April of 2003. That's less than 2 years ago.

The extreme anti-Americanism we see today started the very day America was attacked those fateful days over 3 years ago. People just let the politics of the moment blind themselves to this.
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Wichita
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gvok
Dec 8 2004, 03:29 PM
Fesarius
Dec 8 2004, 10:24 AM
Quote:
 
Or perhaps some just prefer to see disaster and refuse to look for success.

Bingo! And Amen to that. ;)

This may be true for some people who thought the decision to invade Iraq was wrong but it is not true for all (namely myself).

Personal Response

Based on your response, I take it that you didn't read my post before commenting.

End of Personal Response
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