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| Human Activity Tied to Deadly European Heat Waves | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Dec 1 2004, 04:24 PM (100 Views) | |
| gvok | Dec 1 2004, 04:24 PM Post #1 |
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Unregistered
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Human Activity Tied to Deadly Heat Waves Human Activity Tied to Deadly Heat Waves By Serena Gordon HealthDay Reporter WEDNESDAY, Dec. 1 (HealthDayNews) -- While human activity probably isn't directly responsible for the 2003 heat wave that caused thousands of deaths in Europe, British researchers say human influence on the Earth's climate has at least doubled the risk that such protracted hot spells can occur. In fact, the scientists said, greenhouse gases and other pollutants may have caused up to a fourfold increase in the risk of serious heat waves. "Our research shows a clear link between human influence on climate and the damaging heat wave of 2003 that led to between 22,000 and 35,000 extra deaths," said study co-author Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. "We estimate the risk is increasing rapidly such that by the middle of this century, every other summer will be hotter than 2003 if no serious efforts are made to reduce greenhouse emissions." Their findings are reported in the Dec. 2 issue of Nature. The summer of 2003 may have been the hottest on record in Europe in about 500 years, according to the study. As many as 35,000 heat-related deaths were reported that summer, according to an editorial accompanying the article. Economic costs from crop losses and forest fires caused nearly $14 billion worth of damage, according to the editorial. Using climate models, Stott and his colleagues statistically evaluated weather patterns with and without greenhouse gas emissions. They found that such emissions have at least doubled the risk of heat waves, and could perhaps increase the odds substantially higher. "We've shown that greenhouse gas emissions, resulting mainly from fossil fuel burning, have increased the risk of heat waves in Europe, such as we saw last year," said Stott. "We think it is very likely that the risk has more than doubled, and our best estimate is that the risk has already quadrupled. Greenhouse gas emissions have loaded the weather dice, making heat waves much more likely," he concluded. Does this mean sweltering summers might become inevitable? Stott said it could mean just that, at least for a while. "Because of the inertia of the climate system, we are already committed to heat waves becoming more common over the next few decades. But if we reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we can prevent further increases and avoid the more serious consequence of very large rates of warming in Europe and other regions of the world," Stott said. The study "is the first successful attempt to link climate change to a specific extreme event, and to quantify the role of man-made greenhouse gas emissions on such heat wave But he also said there are many "uncertainties in applying this model to an extreme event such as the European heat wave," and added, "further studies will be needed to corroborate the paper's conclusions. However, Schär added that this study brings up an interesting issue: Who's to blame? "The quantification of the man-made contribution in extreme events might ultimately lead to climate liability claims," said Schär. A second paper accompanying the Stott study specifically addressed potential liability issues. "A substantial fraction of our current elevated level of carbon dioxide might be traced to products produced and sold or used by only a few dozen major companies," wrote Myles Allen, a physicist at the University of Oxford, and Richard Lord, a London-based negligence attorney. And, while there's no way to prove that greenhouse emissions directly caused damage today, in the future, the authors said, "We could one day see Californian farmers suing member states of the European Union for authorizing emissions that threatened the security of their water supplies." Liability issues aside, both Stott and Schär said it's vital that steps be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. "Man-made emissions of greenhouse gases are considered the main driver behind global warming observed during the last 30 to 50 years. These emissions primarily result from the burning of fossil fuels -- oil, gas, coal. Reducing the emissions would ultimately slow down the warming," said Schär. In the meantime, he recommended that humans try to adapt to the climate change. "Governments should take actions to implement early warning systems, and to raise the awareness in the population about how to cope with such heat wave events. This could help reduce the negative health and societal implications," said Schär. |
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| Hoss | Dec 1 2004, 04:53 PM Post #2 |
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Don't make me use my bare hands on you.
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I doubt that there are any 'clear' links to climate changes and anything. This sounds like scientific arrogance to me. |
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| gvok | Dec 1 2004, 04:55 PM Post #3 |
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Unregistered
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Perhaps... But I think it's worth discussing though. |
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| Hoss | Dec 1 2004, 04:57 PM Post #4 |
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Don't make me use my bare hands on you.
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Yes, worth discussing. |
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| somerled | Dec 2 2004, 03:15 AM Post #5 |
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Admiral MacDonald RN
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The physical evidence that has been gathered is pretty solid and most chemical engineers and physicists that I know, and a great many (the majority) of people in these disciplimes - who are the only ones who have the knowledge to really understand the issue - have accepted that man's activities are indeed modifying the global environment and climate, and the effect will be dramatic, in many places disasterous , even catastrophic , and long term. All you need to do see that is to review recent volumes of Chemical Engineering , Chemical Engineering and Processing, AIChE, Nature , AIP, Journal of Physics , and other scientific and engineering jounals to varify that , there are regular papers and discussions therein on the matter. (And the science applied can be VERY HARD CORE - so be warned - you might find these heavy going as a read.) |
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| Admiralbill_gomec | Dec 2 2004, 08:10 AM Post #6 |
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UberAdmiral
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cough*cough*bull$h!t*cough*cough* |
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| Hoss | Dec 2 2004, 08:19 AM Post #7 |
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Don't make me use my bare hands on you.
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I guess my issue is that there is a long history of global warming (and cooling) that predates human industrialization, but this particular thing is caused by human activity. Sounds like politically motivated psuedo-science to me, on the surface. I am unconvinced that human activity at this point can possible affect the environment in such a big way. I am all for more efficient uses of materials and energy, though, just on principle. One of my main concerns about the EU is that they seem far more likely to jump to conclusions based on poor or politically motivated science and pass laws that do nothing by make it harder to do business. |
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| captain_proton_au | Dec 2 2004, 08:20 AM Post #8 |
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A Robot in Disguise
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35,000? When did this happen? What qualifies as a "heat related death"? How high did the temps get in Europe last summer? |
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| somerled | Dec 2 2004, 09:18 AM Post #9 |
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Admiral MacDonald RN
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Take the time to visit your local university's library and take a look at the journals before dismissing the issue due as natural causes , or you could try to explain it away properly. Surely that is not beyond you ? |
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