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Ol' Jimmy sure knows how to pick a winner
Topic Started: Aug 19 2004, 05:26 AM (405 Views)
Dwayne
Profanity deleted by Hoss
Minuet
Aug 19 2004, 04:33 PM
It's not a matter of being thin skinned. It's the source of the comment. You usually use the term leftist as an insult. Also, just being on the left doesn't mean that people are going to agree on every point. Just as people on the right don't always agree on everything.

As a matter of fact you should go back and read Admiralbill's comments on Florida and the 2000 elections. It sounds to me like he is on the side of not believing the exit polls. Admiralbill is definitely not a leftist.

First off, I'm not relying on exit polls alone in reaching my conclusion, but then I know you're smart enough to know that.

Second, I don't use leftist as an insult, I use it as a description just was someone might you conservative, republican or rightist as a description.

And third, I never said that all leftists agree on all points, I merely stated that one leftist is a natural ally of another leftist.
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Admiralbill_gomec
UberAdmiral
I have to disagree somewhat, Dwayne. There's a difference between being say, a Tony Blair leftist (please folks, no comments about how conservative Blair is... he isn't) and a Hugo Chavez hardline Communist. One would not be the natural ally of another.

Chavez is a natural ally of Fidel Castro and Kim Jong Il, not Tony Blair. The first three are totalitarians who quash freedoms. The last is just a big government nanny state supporter.
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Minuet
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Fleet Admiral Assistant wRench, Chief Supper Officer
^^^ Thank you Admiralbill.

And, that in a nutshell is why I found the comment to be insulting. Words have meaning. Please choose yours more carefully Dwayne.
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doctortobe
Speak softly, and carry a 57 megaton stick!
Dwayne, to be fair, using your line of thought would mean that you would be a natural ally of Hitler.
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Dwayne
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Admiralbill_gomec
Aug 19 2004, 04:50 PM
I have to disagree somewhat, Dwayne. There's a difference between being say, a Tony Blair leftist (please folks, no comments about how conservative Blair is... he isn't) and a Hugo Chavez hardline Communist. One would not be the natural ally of another.

Chavez is a natural ally of Fidel Castro and Kim Jong Il, not Tony Blair. The first three are totalitarians who quash freedoms. The last is just a big government nanny state supporter.

Well, I'd have to disagree by saying that Chavez is not a Communist and that many American leftists find Chavez quite acceptable.

doctortobe
Aug 19 2004, 05:25 PM
Dwayne, to be fair, using your line of thought would mean that you would be a natural ally of Hitler.

And for many leftists I should be allied with Hitler. For many leftists Mr. Bush is Hitler incarnate.

All that aside, your analogy rests on the premise that Hitler was a rightist and not a quasi-leftist does it not?
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Minuet
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Dwayne
Aug 19 2004, 06:33 PM
Admiralbill_gomec
Aug 19 2004, 04:50 PM
I have to disagree somewhat, Dwayne. There's a difference between being say, a Tony Blair leftist (please folks, no comments about how conservative Blair is... he isn't) and a Hugo Chavez hardline Communist. One would not be the natural ally of another.

Chavez is a natural ally of Fidel Castro and Kim Jong Il, not Tony Blair. The first three are totalitarians who quash freedoms. The last is just a big government nanny state supporter.

Well, I'd have to disagree by saying that Chavez is not a Communist and that many American leftists find Chavez quite acceptable.

doctortobe
Aug 19 2004, 05:25 PM
Dwayne, to be fair, using your line of thought would mean that you would be a natural ally of Hitler.

And for many leftists I should be allied with Hitler. For many leftists Mr. Bush is Hitler incarnate.

All that aside, your analogy rests on the premise that Hitler was a rightist and not a quasi-leftist does it not?

Administrative Response

Dwayne - you are digging the hole deeper and deeper.

Per your own words some, leftists might align you with Hitler. But the key word is some - not all. You statement about natural allies is stating that all leftists are natural allies. I get that from the fact that you automatically called DS9074 a natural ally without giving him the benefit of asking him what he thought of Chavez's policies. If that is not what you meant then next time ask instead of labeling.

Personal Response

Back to the topic at hand. Dwayne - if you can call into account the results of an election in another country are you not opening the doors to having the results of the 2000 election questioned. Please note that I am not questioning the results of your election - however I am questioning the slippery slope of hypocrisy you are going down where you accept exit polls unquestionly in one instance, but not in another. Don't forget, per the article, Carter and his people got different results from thier informal exit poll then the polling company.
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Dwayne
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Minuet
Aug 19 2004, 05:49 PM
Back to the topic at hand. Dwayne - if you can call into account the results of an election in another country are you not opening the doors to having the results of the 2000 election questioned. Please note that I am not questioning the results of your election - however I am questioning the slippery slope of hypocrisy you are going down where you accept exit polls unquestionly in one instance, but not in another. Don't forget, per the article, Carter and his people got different results from thier informal exit poll then the polling company.

Reread the IHT article, Carter did not take exit polls.
Quote:
 
Although the Organization of American States and the Carter Center have called the election free and fair, their quick count justifying this statement was also based only on the numbers provided by the voting machines.


As well, I did say the following, "In a close race, I'd agree, exit poll results should not be trusted, but when exit poll results are diametrically opposed by a large margin to 'official tallies', then I tend to think something is amiss," so any attempt to claim some sort of hypocrisy on my part vis-a-vis the 2000 election is pure bunk.
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Minuet
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Quote:
 
Both Gaviria and former President Jimmy Carter, another election monitor, endorsed the vote, saying the results coincided with their own independent samplings.


From your article in the Guardian Unlimited. I might add that the article also gave compelling reasons to believe the exit poll conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland was possibly biased.

Quote:
 
Critics of the exit poll have questioned how it was conducted because officials have said Penn, Schoen & Berland worked with a U.S.-funded Venezuela group that the Chavez government considers hostile.

Penn, Schoen & Berland had members of Sumate, a Venezuelan group that helped organize the recall initiative, do the fieldwork for the poll, election observers said.

Roberto Abdul, a Sumate official, acknowledged in a telephone interview that the firm ``supervised'' an exit poll carried out by Sumate. Abdul added that at least five exit polls were completed for the opposition, with all pointing to a Chavez victory.

Abdul said Sumate - which has received a $53,400 grant from the National Endowment for Democracy, which in turn receives funds from the U.S. Congress - did not use any of those funds to pay for the surveys.

The issue is potentially explosive because even before the referendum, Chavez himself cited Washington's funding of Sumate as evidence that the Bush administration was financing efforts to oust him - an allegation U.S. officials deny.

Venezuelan Minister of Communications Jesse Chacon said it was a mistake for Sumate to be involved in the exit poll because it might have skewed the results.

``If you use an activist as a pollster, he will eventually begin to act like an activist,'' Chacon told The Associated Press.
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ds9074
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Admiral
I dont know enough about the regime to say whether I would support it or not. If it is a Communist regime along the lines of China, Cuba or N. Korea (in order of extremity), then I wouldnt be a natural supporter. I might be on the left but I dont support Communism.

However, it was described in one article I read as akin to the post war Labour Government in Britain of Attlee. In other words a socialist government. If so I would be cautiously in favour, although I would still have reservations about that as being too left wing for my liking. I'm a Liberal, which in Britain actually places me in the centre.
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Dwayne
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Minuet
Aug 19 2004, 08:47 PM
Quote:
 
Both Gaviria and former President Jimmy Carter, another election monitor, endorsed the vote, saying the results coincided with their own independent samplings.


From your article in the Guardian Unlimited. I might add that the article also gave compelling reasons to believe the exit poll conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland was possibly biased.

Quote:
 
Critics of the exit poll have questioned how it was conducted because officials have said Penn, Schoen & Berland worked with a U.S.-funded Venezuela group that the Chavez government considers hostile.

Penn, Schoen & Berland had members of Sumate, a Venezuelan group that helped organize the recall initiative, do the fieldwork for the poll, election observers said.

Roberto Abdul, a Sumate official, acknowledged in a telephone interview that the firm ``supervised'' an exit poll carried out by Sumate. Abdul added that at least five exit polls were completed for the opposition, with all pointing to a Chavez victory.

Abdul said Sumate - which has received a $53,400 grant from the National Endowment for Democracy, which in turn receives funds from the U.S. Congress - did not use any of those funds to pay for the surveys.

The issue is potentially explosive because even before the referendum, Chavez himself cited Washington's funding of Sumate as evidence that the Bush administration was financing efforts to oust him - an allegation U.S. officials deny.

Venezuelan Minister of Communications Jesse Chacon said it was a mistake for Sumate to be involved in the exit poll because it might have skewed the results.

``If you use an activist as a pollster, he will eventually begin to act like an activist,'' Chacon told The Associated Press.

And you wrongly assume that was the only exit poll taken.
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Minuet
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Fleet Admiral Assistant wRench, Chief Supper Officer
^^^Show me the others
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Dwayne
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Well, I can find many articles that talk about more than one exit poll results, but cannot find a list of those exit polls. The only exit polling talked about in the news is the one that the Chavez regime claims is fraudulent.
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Minuet
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Please link me to one of those articles then. I need some proof before I will accept that there were other exit polls other then the Carter group's informal poll and the Penn, Schoen & Berland poll.
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Dwayne
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As I said, all the articles I find that mention other exit polling, don't give specifics.
Quote:
 
Mr. Chavez's claims of a "landslide" victory are not supported by independent evidence of how the voting was going. All day long Sunday, exit polls were reporting a 16 to 20 point margin in favor of removing the president. As the Journal's Jose de Cordoba and David Lunhow reported from Caracas yesterday, the opinion polling firm of Penn, Shoen and Berland Associates had the vote to remove Mr. Chavez at 59% in early exit polls. A number of other exit polls throughout the day showed similar results. [emphasis added]

source


If you can find a list of those different organizations providing the exit polling, I'd welcome it, but as I have already stated, I can only find mention of other organizations other than Penn, Shoen and Berland Associates.
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Minuet
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I read that passage differently then you. To me it says that there were early exit polls by Penn, Shoen and Berland Associates, and then there were other polls throughout the day by the same company.

There is no indication in that passage that the later polls were by a different group.
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