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| Another Poll | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: May 21 2004, 10:15 PM (243 Views) | |
| somerled | May 21 2004, 10:15 PM Post #1 |
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Admiral MacDonald RN
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Since you guys are keen on polls. Aussies want troops out of Iraq Well, concidering we should have gone into Iraq in the first place. |
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| Sgt. Jaggs | May 21 2004, 10:19 PM Post #2 |
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How about a Voyager Movie
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Fifty-five per cent of those surveyed said should stay until the job was done, down two percentage points since the last poll just a week ago. What, is 55% not a majority in Australia? Damn it Somerled, at least be an accurate malcontent!
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| doctortobe | May 21 2004, 10:31 PM Post #3 |
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Speak softly, and carry a 57 megaton stick!
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You do realize that the margin of error could make it go either way when the results are this close. |
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| Sgt. Jaggs | May 21 2004, 10:38 PM Post #4 |
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How about a Voyager Movie
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Margin smargin we are talking about majority here. |
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| doctortobe | May 21 2004, 10:44 PM Post #5 |
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Speak softly, and carry a 57 megaton stick!
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I was talking about the first poll about the 47% wanting them to come home and 50% wanting to stay. Even with a 1.5% margin of error, it could be 50-50. I would also say that the title is misleading. A 50-50 split does not mean that the Australians want their troops home, it means that they are split on the issue. I could just as easily say that the results mean that Australians want their troops to stay. |
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| somerled | May 21 2004, 10:47 PM Post #6 |
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Admiral MacDonald RN
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You guys have missed the point - , is supposed to be representative of 20M Australians - BS ! It is at best a very rough indication as the sample size used is far from statistically valid. But I guess this point was a bit to abstract for the average SisterTrekker. |
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| doctortobe | May 21 2004, 10:49 PM Post #7 |
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Speak softly, and carry a 57 megaton stick!
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I wasn't sure about the population of Australia. The polling for Iraq was 2000. Given that Australia's main inhabitation is along the coastlines and the fact that I did not have the time to compare the two populations, I did not bother to bring it up when I noticed the sampling. |
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| Admiralbill_gomec | May 21 2004, 11:35 PM Post #8 |
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UberAdmiral
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So what? Come on Sparky, you CLAIM to understand statistics. 533 people would be a margin of error of what... 4 percent? Stop WHINING. Also, I doubt there are 20 million ADULTS in Australia. Hell, there are more people in Texas than in Australia. |
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| somerled | May 22 2004, 04:42 AM Post #9 |
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Admiral MacDonald RN
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Here's an applet that calculates confidence intervals (for NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS). Sample Size and Confidence Interval Calculator The assumption is a NORMAL DISTRIBUTION for the population. This is actually rarely the case. For your benefit - using the applet 533 out of 20000000 is +/- 5.6 % which is very rough ! Say 3/4 of these 20M are over 18yrs old , it is still +/- 5.5 %. And if you want talk 300M yanks - 2000 samples , that's +/- 3% assuming a normal bell curve. For those of you with a more mathematical bent - I recommend StatSoft Power Analysis Tools - I've used this in experimental designs and it is about as good a tool as you can get.
illustrates the effect nicely.Other types of distribution F Chi^2are just two commonly encountered distrubutions other than binomial and normal distributions that are possible. This is the effect of the confidence interval on expectation
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| Sgt. Jaggs | May 22 2004, 07:54 AM Post #10 |
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How about a Voyager Movie
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^^^^^^^:lol: aaHHHAhA. The slide rule has come out! I love it! All this and you probably don't even like technobabble in your Trek! :lol: |
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| ANOVA | May 22 2004, 12:14 PM Post #11 |
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Vice Admiral
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Come on JS: It's his first semester taking stats. How's he supposed to learn the stuff if never gets to apply it? I mean, look at what he's doing to pass the class. 1) Buying Statistics for Dummies 2) Visiting every statistics web page on the internet. 3) Appying what he's learned on the SisterTrek site, a site known for its statistitions. Somerled: How do you get a normal distribution out of a poll. The person is: for it, against it, or undecided. Three possible outcomes. Whats the null hypothesis for your test of significance?Don't force me to review my statistics books. When are you going to answer my claims on the "only path to democracy in Iraq"? You claimed it was "rubbish". Now acknowledge my counter. ANOVA |
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| 8247 | May 22 2004, 12:18 PM Post #12 |
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Apparently we look like this now
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So, based on a percentage of apples, divided by the square root of the number of navel oranges, we get the absolutely correct number of people who are against tomatoes.
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| Fesarius | May 22 2004, 12:50 PM Post #13 |
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Admiral
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^^^ Your math is somewhat faulty, but those are essentially the facts.
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| doctortobe | May 22 2004, 02:54 PM Post #14 |
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Speak softly, and carry a 57 megaton stick!
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So somerland, can I take all my biological and military knowledge, use it in a post, and then when you don't get the point I was making that would require education into that specialized field of knowledge, rub it in your face then proceed to show off what I know about it? |
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| somerled | May 23 2004, 12:20 AM Post #15 |
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Admiral MacDonald RN
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Excuse me - but a kids in high school (at least here in Australia they are) are taught about students' T tests, normality, binomial and seven skewed probability distributions. There is nothing specialised about that basic stuff. As to more advanced statistics - it's part of the core of many disciplimes including physics, engineering, chemistry, and from I have been told (by friends of mine studying medicine - or who have become medical doctors) of medical science. If you personally don't have it then you'll be hard pressed to understand much of the literature in your own field. Statistical reasoning is also very important in all manner of industries, and even labourers are expected to master the basics and also relevent advanced concepts.I know this because I have trained these types of workers in basic statistics. If you don't follow or understand statistics - that's your problem and not mine , and you should go and learn something about it. I am firm believer that if you have knowledge - use it , otherwize why bother going to the trouble to acquire it in the first place. PS : I don't have , or ever have owned Statistics For Dummys, I was being sarcastic when I used that title. I do however have in my library a few books on statistics that I regularly use. ie Using Multivariate Statistics - Barbara G. Tabachnick, Linda S. Fidell Spss Advanced Statistics - Samuel B. Green, et al Schaum's Outline of The Theory of and Problems in Statistics - by our old friend Murray Speigal Statistical Process Control & Thinking Statistically Course notes by WESTAT and NEWSTAT and naturally Perry's Chemical Engineers' Handbook which also has this stuff covered. Schaums Outline on Multivariable Statistics - I think it's out of print now. |
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illustrates the effect nicely.
F
Chi^2

8:54 AM Jul 11